june 24

Nato chief tries to repair cracks over Libya
NICK CAREY TRIPOLI s June 23: Nato's chief on Thursday slapped down a i call from Italy for a suspen e sion of hostilities in Libya and tried to reassure waver i ing members of the Western coalition that Muammar Gaddafi can be beaten.
Italy's ceasefire call f exposed the strain on the Nato alliance, nearly 14 weeks into a bombing cam i paign that has so far failed to t dislodge Col. Gaddafi but is s causing mounting concerns about its cost and about t civilian casualties.
Col. Gaddafi himself ounded a fresh note of defiance with an audio record ng, broadcast on Libyan tel vision, in which he called Nato states murderers of nnocent civilians and vowed to avenge their deaths.
Asked about Italy's cease ire call, Nato secretary general Anders Fogh Rasmussen said in a newspaper nterview: “No, on the con rary. We shall continue and ee it through to the end.“
“The allies are committed o making the necessary effort for a sustained operation,“ he told France's Le Figaro newspaper.
“We will take the time needed until the military objective is reached: end all attacks against Libyan civilians, return armed forces to barracks and freedom of movement for humanitarian aid.“ Nato says it is operating under a UN mandate to protect civilians from Col.
Gaddafi's forces as he tries to crush an uprising against his 41-year rule. Col.
Gaddafi says Nato's real aim is to steal the country's plentiful oil.
The US, British and French leaders have said they will keep up the pressure until Col. Gaddafi leaves power, but the rebels opposing him have been unable to break through his defences.
US secretary of state Hillary Clinton said progress was being made.
There is no doubt that Col.
Gaddafi's forces have “their backs against the wall,“ she said at a conference in Jamaica.
At the weekend, Nato acknowledged for the first time in the campaign that it may have caused multiple civilian casualties, when an air strike hit a house in Tripoli. That opened up cracks inside the alliance that had already been starting to appear because of the length of time the campaign had been under way without producing a decisive breakthrough.
Col. Gaddafi alluded to the civilian casualties in the audio recording broadcast late on Wednesday. “You said, `We hit our targets with precision', you murderers!“ he said. “One day we will respond to you likewise and your homes will be legitimate targets.“ --Reuters Italy's ceasefire call exposed the strain on the Nato alliance nearly 14 weeks into a bombing campaign that has so far failed to dislodge Col.
Gaddafi but is causing mounting concerns about its cost and about civilian casualties
Pulitzer Prize, Filipino journalist Jose Antonio Vargas revealed a long-held secret on Wednesday: he is an illegal immigrant.
Swaraj paul calls for land reforms
In hard hitting remarks, India-born peer Lord Swraj Paul has called for far-reaching reforms in the working of the House of Lords in the backdrop of his own brush with the House over expenses claims.
Warning that it would be unwise to neglect wideranging reforms of the House, the NRI industrialist told his fellow peers that
“we should govern ourselves with the same degree of propriety that we expect from the civil institutions of government.“ Lord Paul, who was suspended for four months from the House last year over expenses claims, demanded during a debate on “House of Lords Reform“ on Wednesday night, that the rules of the House should be applied equally to all members as he had felt discriminated when action against him was taken. “If there are any investigations or allegations regarding members of this House, all those concerned must be treated equally, selective application of rules against some and exculpation of others is discriminatory,“ he said. Demanding transparency in the functioning of the House, Lord Paul said that whenever the House of Lords or its committee conduct investigation or examine evidence, it is essential that all relevant documents be made available.
“I believe it is essential that in any proceedings against a member of his House, that member should be allowed some legal representation, especially if he or she is to be subject to unrestrained cross-examination by legal luminaries,” he said.
—PTI
Humble pigeon shows up flaws in Oz broadband
Australia's problems with high-speed Internet can be summed up in one word: Margaret.
Margaret is a carrier pigeon that raced the nation's biggest broadband service to send a 700 megabit file over a distance of 132 km, a televised contest that Margaret, with a memory stick taped to her leg, won easily. That was in 2009. Things haven't got much better.
“It's pretty sad, isn't it,“ said telecoms lobbyist Teresa Corbin.
“I don't think we will see that (a pigeon win) when we have fibre-optic cable,” added Corbin, head of the Australian Communications Consumer Action Network, which represents almost 100 separate community groups, all keen supporters of Australia’s $38 billion plan for a national broadband network.
Made up mostly of fibreoptic cable and offering virtually unlimited bandwidth, the plan cleared its last major hurdle on Thursday with two deals worth almost $13 billion to effectively annex the fixed-line infrastructure of Telstra and its major rival, Optus, owned by Singapore Telecommunications.
These assets of Telstra and Optus, which include highspeed cable and the ducts that carry them, will be the initial building blocks for a network spanning a continent the size of western Europe and take about eight years to build.
But for users like 66-yearold Laurie Nelms, a retiree living in the fast-growing tourist town of Nelsons Bay north of Sydney, the age of high-speed Internet cannot come fast enough.
Nelms uses Internet tools like Skype to keep in touch with distant friends and has found that his broadband connection has been steadily deteriorating over the past few years, as the town expands and more and more people use the same Telstra network.
“It’s gotten to the point where Skype doesn’t work anymore,” he said in a phone interview, noting his broad
band speed was down to 3.56 megabits per second, about 15 times slower than the average advertised speed in Internet leader South Korea. “Telstra is jamming more and more people onto the system but they have not upgraded it... The line speed we've got here is about a third of the national average.
It's far too late. All this work should have been done 1015 years ago.“
Australia ranks sixth in terms of gross domestic product per capita among rich nations, but it offers one of the most expensive and patchy broadband services in the developed world, according to Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) data.
The reason is a combination of geography and population: it has been uneconomic for Telstra and rivals like Optus to invest heavily in new infrastructure such as fibre-optic cable outside central business districts or wealthy city suburbs.
In rural and outback areas, where population centres are small and distances between them great, broadband is either non-existent or relies heavily on aging strands of copper wire, creating a digital divide that hurts the economy.
“There are not many coun
tries that have the same geography as Australia. We have a big, wide brown land and it's extremely expensive to wire it up,“ said consumer lobbyist Corbin.
“That's why we need the government to move into this space with a national strategy. They will build the road and let anybody run on it, and that should encourage competition.“
The government aims to build a network that will wean the economy off Telstra's own infrastructure, which the former monopoly had fiercely guarded as new rivals sought to use it, and replace it with a neutral state-owned network. In the long run, Canberra plans to privatise its broadband network but wants to always keep network ownership separate from the phone companies that use it, so that industry competition focuses on services and avoids turf-wars over infrastructure.
With Telstra shareholders expected to sign off on Thursday’s deal, the main question now is whether the government can manage the project well and bring it in on time and on budget.
“I’m concerned,” retiree Nelms said. “The cost blows out and then they say we (taxpayers) have to dig a little deeper.” —Reuters




Food inflation jumps, Centre banks on rain

NEW DELHI
Costlier protein-based items and fruits pushed up food inflation to a two-and-a-half month high of 9.13%, prompting finance minister Pranab Mukherjee to say that price rise needs to be contained as a high inflationary regime was unacceptable. Food inflation rose to touch two-and-ahalf month high at 9.13 per cent for the week ended on June 11 at a time when there are concerns that monsoon could be below normal this year.
“We are in region of high inflationary regime, which is not acceptable. It will have to be brought down,” said the finance minister, Mr Pranab Mukherjee.
He said that the detailed analysis of food items indicate that it is substantially contributed by the milk products, poultry products and fish. “On the whole, the figures are not satisfactory... But not disappointing in the sense that the wholesale price index (WPI) primary articles have come down from 12.86 per cent to 12.62 per cent,” he said.
On non-food items, Mr Mukherjee said they have “been steadily declining from 23.82 per cent just a month back... Every subsequent week from May 7 to June 11 it has steadily declined. That is one important aspect.” While earlier there was hope that with normal monsoon food prices will come down substantially, India Meteorological Department (IMD) had said on Tuesday that monsoon rains are likely to be below normal this year. Economists fear that
this revision in the forecast by IMD could impact the sentiment towards food prices and may lead to some people indulging in speculation.
Crisil, chief economist, Dr D.K. Joshi said that it is too early to comment on the issue. “We will have to wait till July end to see what is happening. It is not other the quantum of rainfall but its spread and its timing, which is also important.
Food prices may not hit 1516 per cent that we have seen in recent years. But, yes, if monsoon fails that is possible,” he said.
Meanwhile, the RBI, deputy governor, Dr Subir Gokarn, on Thursday said that the forecast of ‘below normal’ monsoon rains does not pose “too much threat” to food inflation so
long as the country's central part receives close to normal rains. “The central part is where there is lot of concentration of pulses and cereals... If rainfall in that part of the country remains close to normal, I do not think there will be any pressure,“ he said.
According to data released on Thursday as compared to last year prices of fruits were up by 28.66 per cent, milk by 15.30 per cent, onions by 11.89 per cent and egg, meat and fish by 10.5 per cent. As compared to last week the products whose prices rose are marine foods (5 per cent), milk (4 per cent), tea and poultry chicken (3 per cent each), jowar and eggs (2 per cent each) and moong, fruits and vegetables (1 per cent each).
No cumbersome compliance rules for merger & acquisitions
Industry's con -cerns about having to deal with multiple regulators in merger and acquisitions (M&A) transactions was set at rest on Thursday as the secretary for the ministry of company affairs, Mr D.K.
Mittal, said there would not be multiplicity in reporting formats.
He also said that the competition laws would also be applicable to government institutions and PSUs and that a committee to draft a national competition policy has been set up and a draft will be up for review soon.
He also revealed that the Parliament would be reviewing the Companies Bill in this monsoon session.
Addressing the first summit on M&As organised by the CII on Thursday, Mr Mittal said that the ministry of corporate affairs, Sebi and RBI are on the same page in terms of reporting requirements.
“If anything is changed, it will be changed for all three. So corporates will not have multiplicity of reporting formats and that is one commitment we give to the
Indian industry.” Mr Mittal said further that “In India regulation of M&A is done under few fundamentals. The market regulator Sebi and the Competition Commission of India have norms to regulate takeover of Indian companies by foreign companies where capital is much cheaper.” M&As is among the largest contributors to the Indian growth story with the corporate sector witnessing deals worth $67 billion in 2010. Earlier Mr Adi Godrej, president designate, CII & chairman, Godrej Group voiced the fears of the industry about the impact of merger control regulations, statutory time limit for M&A approval, which presently at over seven months is one of the longest in the world, alignment of multiple regulations to ensure that companies are not inconvenienced by varying standards. He also suggested further liberalisation of policies in key sectors like insurance, multi-brand retail and real estate as Indian companies would huge capital inflow to build scale rapidly and compete successfully with MNCs.


BID TO REDUCE PRICES World releases oil reserves, crude dips to $90

The United States will lead an international effort to release 60 million barrels of petroleum reserves to world markets, replacing some of the oil production lost because of the conflict in Libya, the International Energy Agency announced in Paris on Thursday.
The action is aimed at reducing energy prices for
businesses and consumers, and in early trading, futures contracts for West Texas intermediate crude oil were down $5 a barrel to around $90.
Of the total amount of oil to be released, about half would come from reserves in the United States, with the rest to be provided by other nations among the international agency’s 28 member states. Negotiations for the coordinated response have been going
on in secret for weeks, according to a person involved in the talks. Similar unified action was taken in 1991 at the outbreak of the first Persian Gulf War.
“We are taking this action in response to the ongoing loss of crude oil due to supply disruptions in Libya and other countries and their impact on the global economic recovery,“ said Energy secretary, Mr Steven Chu in a statement. “As we move forward, we will con tinue to monitor the situation and stand ready to take additional steps if necessary.“ The Dow Jones industrial average lost 165 points at the opening of trading, shortly after the announcement from Paris, but some traders said the large drop was partially a reaction to a sharp increase in weekly claims for jobless benefits in the United States.
Even as the talks proceeded behind the scenes, prices have come down a bit at American gasoline pumps.
The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline has fallen to $3.61, the AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report said Thursday, compared with $3.83 a month ago. A year ago, the price was $2.74 a gallon. It is unclear how much more prices could come down, if at all, with the release of the reserve oil, which is not a large amount given worldwide consumption levels.The oil to be released is light sweet crude, similar to the type that Libya produces. The war in Libya since mid-March has been largely responsible for keeping about 140 million barrels of oil from international markets, according to government estimates.
The 727-million-barrel Strategic Petroleum Reserve was established after the 1973-1974 Arab oil embargo to provide presidents with an emergency response to similar disruptions in commercial supplies that threaten the economy security. -NYTNS
ASIA HAS MORE RICH THAN EUROPE
The number of high net-worth individuals (HNI) in India has jumped by 28 per cent as their numbers swelled to 1,53,000 in 2010 from 1,26,700 in 2009.
Their collective wealth is over a mind-boggling $1,53,000 million or $153 billion, according to the 15th annual World Wealth Report, released on Thursday by Merrill Lynch Global Wealth Management and Capgemini.
The HNIs have been identified as those with investible assets of $1 million or more, excluding their primary residence, collectibles, consumables and consumer durables.
According to the study, India’s HNI population became the world’s 12th largest in 2010 replacing Spain that dropped to 14th position.
The global HNI population increased 8.3 per cent to 10.9 million with the HNI financial wealth growing 9.7 per cent to reach $42.7 trillion (compared with 17.1 per cent and 18.9 per cent respectively in 2009). The global population of Ultra-HNIs (assets of over $30 million) grew by 10.2 per cent in 2010 and its wealth by 11.5 per cent.
The US continued to have the largest number of HNIs at 3.1 million or 28.6 per cent of the global HNI population. The trio of the US, Japan and Germany togeth
er accounted for 53 per cent of the world's HNIs reflecting the concentration of wealth. But this concentration is gradually fragmenting, said Mr Jean Lassignardie, global head of sales and marketing, Capgemini Global Financial Services.
“The concentration of HNIs among these areas will continue to erode, if the HNI population of emerging and developing markets continue to grow faster than those of developed markets.“
Asia-Pacific has already recorded a stronger regional rate of HNI population growth in 2010. It has already overtaken Europe in 2009, and has now surpassed Europe in terms of HNI population, expanding 9.7 per cent to 3.3 million, while Europe grew 6.3 per cent to 3.1 million. The wealth of Asia-Pacific HNIs gained 12.1 per cent to $10.8 trillion, exceeding Europe's HNI wealth of $10.2 trillion, where the wealth increase was 7.2 per cent in 2010. Asia-Pacific is now the second largest region for both HNWI wealth and population, second only to North America.
Hezbollah may fight Israel to relieve Syria
Lebanon’s Hezbollah militant group is preparing for a possible war with Israel to relieve perceived Western pressure to topple Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, its guardian ally, sources close to the movement say.
The radical Shia group, which has a powerful militia armed by Damascus and Iran, is watching the unrest in neighbouring Syria with alarm and is determined to prevent the West from exploiting popular protests to bring down Assad.
Hezbollah supported prodemocracy movements that toppled Western-backed leaders in Tunisia and Egypt, but officials say it will not stand idly by as international pressure mounts on Mr Assad to yield to protesters.
It is committed to do whatever it takes politically to help deflect what it sees as a foreign campaign against Damascus, but it is also readying for a possible war with Israel if Assad is weakened. “Hezbollah will never
intervene in Syria. This is an internal issue for President Bashar to tackle. But when it sees the West gearing up to bring him down, it will not just watch,” a Lebanese official told Reuters. “This is a battle for existence for the group and it is time to return the favour (of Syria’s support). It will do that by fending off some of the international pressure,” he added.
The militant group, established nearly 30 years ago to confront Israel’s occupation of south Lebanon, fought an inconclusive 34-day war with Israel in 2006. Hezbollah and Syria have both denied that the group has sent fighters to support a military crackdown on the wave of protests against Mr Assad’s rule. Hezbollah believes the West is working to reshape West Asia by replacing Mr Assad with a ruler friendly to Israel and hostile to itself. “The region now is at war, a war between what is good and what is backed by Washington.
Syria is the good,” said a Lebanon-based Arab official.
SECURITY WISE Nuclear borderline
EVERY YEAR, come January, the Indian and Pakistani governments exchange lists of nuclear facilities (along with their coordinates) that each side undertakes not to attack in case of hostilities. Presumably, new power stations and other sensitive nuclear military-related installations are added to the lists as and when these go onstream.
This is a civilised way of dealing with an adversarial fellow nuclear weapons state. It provides some assurance that even in the most volatile situations neither government will slip into actions to make bad situations infinitely worse. It is an aim that will be furthered by the foreign secretaries currently meeting in Islamabad discussing nuclear confidence-building measures (CBMs).
That vulnerable nuclear power stations provide attractive military targets are a fact of life and an issue I have plumbed in my writings. It was a problem that troubled the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and Warsaw Pact member-states during the Cold War for which the protagonists found no solution such as the one India and Pakistan have devised. Bennett Ramberg, a sometime official in the George W. Bush administration had, far back as the 1970s, first voiced the danger of nuclear power plants proving high-value targets in the first wave of Soviet attacks were the Cold War to turn hot.
In the subcontinental context, the worrisome question is this: Notwithstanding any agreement with India prohibiting such strikes, will the Pakistan Army be able to resist the temptation of hitting or, more importantly, holding hostage proliferating
Indian nuclear power stations per Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s ill-thought-out plan to produce 40,000 MW of nuclear energy by 2050? Indeed, considering the disproportionate payoffs that could accrue to Pakistan, not so much from taking them out as holding these power plants hostage to “good behaviour” on the battlefield, meaning, India not exploiting such advantage as has been obtained by its conventional forces, it may be reasonable to assume General Headquarters Rawalpindi may not forsake this stratagem in war. In any case, it will be prudent for Indian war planners take such a contingency seriously.
The antidote to such a ruse de guerre is to build a string of nuclear power plants at sites along the border with Pakistan so as to neutralise the remotest chance of the Pakistan Nuclear Command Authority ordering such strikes in the first place.
The reasons why Pakistan will shrink from attacking nuclear power plants on the border are obvious enough. There is no way of guaranteeing that radioactivity from damaged nuclear power stations will not drift across to affect the Pakistani heartland of the Punjab.
Paradoxically, the greater the number of reactors on the border the better the chance these will not be hit. Pakistan will also be deterred from launching missile salvos at reactors in the Indian hinterland, because that would be opting for “total war” it cannot survive, and in which the Chinese-built nuclear complexes at Chashma and Khushab, and the civilian nuclear power plant in Karachi, would be counter-targeted.
Moreover, such reactors may also preempt conventional hostilities for fear of hitting them.
The policy of N-plants on the border conjoined to the certainty of nuclear response to Indian reactors being struck by terrorists or missiles will, moreover, incentivise the Pakistan Army and its Directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence to keep close tabs on the terrorist outfits they have nurtured lest in their zeal these zealots mount an attack and start an affray that will end up costing Pakistan dearer than anything Pakistani strikes can inflict on India.
The Nuclear Power Corporation Ltd. has already scouted a number of sites in Indian Punjab, Rajasthan and Gujarat to host high-yield nuclear power plants. It will not be difficult to tweak the plans a bit to ensure that most of these reactors are relocated in the border zone.
This strategy will turn potential nuclear hostages for Pakistan into counter-hostages against Pakistan within this country and actually ensure a zone of peace along the border, even where conventional hostilities are concerned. Nuclear issues require careful thought and calibrated policies, not blind reliance on diplomatic understandings that may not withstand the realworld test of military planners in war being tempted by juicy targets. As history shows, preparing for the worst usually prevents the worst from happening — a lesson India seems terminally incapable of learning.
In the nuclear context though, it is not clear what additional CBMs Indian foreign secretary Nirupama Rao and Salman Bashir might discuss. But former Indian diplomats Raja Menon and Lalit Mansingh, involved in the officially-sponsored TrackII dialogue, have revealed the possibility of the mutual withdrawal of the early generation short-range ballistic missiles with the two countries — Prithvi-I, Abdali, and Ghaznavi, from frontline service.
The trouble with formalising reciprocal actions using diplomatic means is that it ends up according Pakistan parity with India in the nuclear realm that Islamabad has been striving for many years to embed as the negotiating template. And, this talking point sets a precedent.
As part of second-stage CBMs, with Pakistan insisting on parity, it will complicate agreeing on mutually acceptable nuclear force-sizes and weapons quality levels, considering that the Indian strategic deterrent is primarily keyed to the China threat, and Pakistan's fears are Indiacentric.
It would have been advisable if, as I have advocated in my 2002 book Nuclear Weapons and Indian Security: The Realist Foundations of Strategy, India had unilaterally withdrawn the nuclearised Prithvi-I batteries many years ago from deployed status on its western border, in order to dilute Pakistan's mistrust and inspiring confidence. This symbolically and politically potent gesture would have reassured the Pakistan Army and people without India, in any way, conceding an equal nuclear status for Pakistan. Moreover, it would have been a safe thing to do because all potential targets within Pakistan can be reached by the longer-range Agni missiles fired from hinterland launch points.
Positioning the Prithvi-I, and that too the liquid-fuelled variety, at the forward edge of the battlefield -whichever genius thought that up -was always a risky idea and an obvious tripwire that neither the military situation on the ground nor the political correlation of forces really warranted. That the Indian government at all ordered such forward missile deployment indicates faulty instincts and inadequate nuclear military knowledge.
The author is a professor at the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi




Investments hit as governance drifts


THE SLOWDOWN in investments in India -both domestic and foreign direct investment and portfolio investment -is a cause for grave concern. But this is only a symptom of a much larger problem. Local investments by the Indian private sector and government entities is down to a trickle. High interest rates and the high fiscal deficit are the main culprits. Last week the Reserve Bank of India raised interest rates for the 10th time in just over a year, with very little or no effect on inflation. But in view of the government's inability to tackle supply-side issues, the RBI had to look as if it was doing something. While failing to curb inflation, these interest rate hikes have instead succeeded in curbing investment and growth. This is a dangerous situation -for unlike most other emerging economies that depend on exports for their growth, India's growth is primarily driven by domestic demand. So the fall in investments and high interest rates have already taken their toll in varying degrees on areas like manufacturing, consumer goods, construction, auto, real estate, etc. The corporate sector finds credit expensive and so has been forced to either postpone capital expenditure or to abandon it altogether. The government too has cut down on its expenditure as it has to control its fiscal deficit. It has been unable to reduce subsidies on fertiliser and fuel; but unless it can do this the public expenditure on badly-needed infrastructure such as roads, highways, ports and transport facilities will suffer. Most analysts believe the government will miss its fiscal deficit target of 4.6 per cent of GDP as it simply does not have the political will to curb unproductive expenditure.
A conducive environment is absolutely essential if investments are to start flowing once again. There has to be a clearer picture of where the economy is headed. In today's India we have multiple uncertainties -over critical issues like inflation, interest rates, the uncertain level of demand, the fiscal deficit and growth levels. And the biggest problem of all is the absence of political leadership, with irregularities even among the higher bureaucracy. This is a major disincentive for foreign investors, who simply do not like uncertainties and delays. While it is true that the overall flow of foreign funds flows has slowed down globally, India is getting far less than the other emerging markets.
Major decisions -such as on a fuel policy and a land acquisition policy -have been pending for a long time, and there is no indication when there will be some forward movement. The government seems unable to decide which way to go: given that crony capitalism is so obviously out of tune with the current public mood. Big ticket projects are actually being delayed due to this. Imagine in a country like ours that suffers from chronic brownouts and blackouts a major public sector power undertaking had to back down on generation as the state electricity boards cannot afford to buy power. Most of them are bankrupt and, according to one estimate, have suffered a total loss of around `1.04 lakh crores. In the past few months we have seen a new scam emerge almost every single day, causing huge losses to the exchequer and of course blackening the nation's image. There can be no quick-fix solution on the investment front in such a scenario, and we will have to live with slow growth. There are some signs of softening in the commodity rates; this to an extent might ease the pressure on inflation and thus on interest rates, which then could lead to more investments and production. But that's still a long way off.
Tamils in Lanka need better deal
TWO YEARS after the military defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam and the battlefield killing of its supremo Vellupillai Prabhakaran, there is alas little to suggest that the government of President Mahinda Rajapakse has projected any fresh ideas to clinch an inclusive political settlement with that country’s Tamil minority. The closure of nearly a quarter century of military conflict should have given President Rajapakse the moral authority to lead with ideas and action in this context. Indeed, Sri Lanka’s Northern Province, home to most of the country’s Tamils, does not as yet have an elected provincial council while the country’s remaining eight provinces do so.
Perhaps Colombo is apprehensive that if such an elected body takes office, it would be able to press its case for devolution of powers within a federal structure, or may be something even wider. But it should be evident to a confident Colombo that it is precisely when the broad idea of self-rule within a federal setup is denied that there might be fears of new prairie fires starting. The upshot of this can be the further enfeeblement of the Sri Lankan state when it has just emerged from a prolonged period of sapping conflict. In spite of the sensitivities associated in India with Sri Lanka’s Tamil question, and a natural sympathy for Tamils who live on both sides of the Palk Strait, even at the height of the LTTE’s military and political influence New Delhi always gave short shrift to the idea of an independent Tamil Eelam, and strongly supported the idea of a meaningful devolution of powers within a federal Sri Lanka.
It is to reinforce this sentiment — which makes good practical sense and is also well-grounded in theoretical postulates rooted in the present-day international notion that existing borders should not be sought to be redrawn — that a three-member delegation of top Indian officials led by national security adviser Shivshankar Menon visited Sri Lanka recently where it called on the President and took soundings from different quarters. It is noteworthy that, while emphasising the benefits of devolution, the Indian team did not especially push for the acceptance by Colombo of the 13th Amendment to the Sri Lankan Constitution, which derives from the India-Sri Lanka accord of 1987. A reference to the 13th Amendment had uptil now been a part of New Delhi’s advice. In January 2009, then external affairs minister Pranab Mukherjee had briefly visited Colombo chiefly to underline the inherent value of an inclusive political agreement with the Tamil minority, especially after the military victory of the Sri Lankan state over the independence-seeking LTTE. In the last phase of Colombo’s war against the LTTE, India had given the former protective political cover against international demands for a halt to the endgame.
In the past one year, President Rajapakse has said he has a particular agreement with the Tamils in mind, but has been reluctant to indicate even its broad outlines, preferring instead that the Opposition parties, the Tamil National Alliance (the umbrella party of various Tamil interests), and the government first negotiate points of agreement. That process is on and the next consultation is due on June 23. Even so, Colombo might do well to indicate that it would contemplate no step that overlooks the “equitable” aspect of any proposed devolution package. In India, leaving jurisdiction over land and police (law and order) to states (provinces in Sri Lanka) has served us well even in troubled times. Colombo might usefully look at this model. In New Delhi recently, Sri Lanka’s foreign minister G.L. Peiris said his government would improved upon the 13th Amendment. That’s a good sign, but Colombo might usefully begin to indicate the first steps in that direction
Not squaring up with Washington
WITH NEWS about yet another possible scandal, this time dealing with oil leases, buffeting the United Progressive Alliance-2 government, it may be difficult for the country's policymakers to focus on the upcoming US-India strategic dialogue scheduled for late next month. Indeed if the current disarray persists, the meeting scheduled in Washington, D.C. may lead, at best, to the usual recitation of a litany of mutual concerns. At worst, the Indian side may not even be able to cobble together such a ritualistic incantation.
Similarly, the Obama administration frantically dealing with Republican intransigence on the healthcare legislation, and more importantly on the question of the budget ceiling, may also have had little time to fashion a meaningful agenda for the dialogue.
That said, quite apart from its legion of domestic woes, given the responses that it has elicited from India in the recent past on various fronts, their inattention might be forgiven.
Aside from the exigencies that the relationship currently confronts, the dialogue may well be facing some structural problems that need to be forthrightly addressed. Bluntly stated, some key policymakers in the United States are beginning to express private doubts about whether or not India really wants to pursue a viable strategic partnership.
These doubts have arisen because of a number of recent developments in both multilateral and bilateral contexts.
Many observers of the relationship are probably well aware of these infelicitous events and turning points. However, for the benefit of others it may be useful to highlight some of them. At least three of them should be underscored. The first, of course, was the decision of Parliament to pass such draconian nuclear liability legislation that it all but deterred most American firms from wanting to invest in the Indian civilian nuclear energy industry. Most, though not all, Indian analysts have been ready to dismiss the concerns of American firms and have suggested that similar, if not better technological investments can be obtained from other nations, notably France.
However, this analysis sorely misses the point. The George W.
Bush and the Obama administrations both expended significant political capital to cajole and prod a reluctant Congress to pass the enabling legislation to con I summate the civilian nuclear energy agreement. They also persuaded key recalcitrant members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group to allow the deal to proceed apace. t Having spent so much political and diplomatic capital it was entirely reasonable for the United States to expect that its companies might have a fair chance of competing in the Indian market. The legislation, in its present form, all but ensures that they t will not be entering the fray any l time soon. At a time when the US economy still remains in the doldrums it is hardly unreasonable for American legislators to have expected a more welcoming attitude from India. Sadly, f few influential individuals in the l Indian political arena are either cognisant of their frustration, or, t worse still, even care about these bruised sentiments.
This lack of reciprocity was bad enough. However, India's i decision to abstain at the United Nations Security Council on the vote authorising the use of force against Libya caused further t heartburn. In fact, it again resurrected memories of a time when India could be fairly well counted upon to vote against the United States. Such votes, mostly cast during the Cold War years, had the effect of dramatically alienating US legislators. For good or ill, in that era, the resultant diplomatic damage mattered little to India because the bilater al relationship had so little of substance. Today, however, India's policymakers cannot afford to be so cavalier about the consequences. When votes concerning India crop up in the House and the Senate they should not expect much sympathy, let alone support.
Finally, there is the still simmering resentment over India's decision to overlook the two American contenders for the Medium Multiple Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA). It is entirely possible, and indeed quite likely, that the decision was made purely on technical grounds. To that extent, the expectations of the process that the defence ministry had outlined were honoured.
However, in a country where political considerations all too frequently influence critical public policy choices the abrupt decision to sedulously adhere to technical criteria does appear a bit odd. Technical specifications alone, for once, should not have been the critical basis for selecting this aircraft. Instead a decision in favour of the American aerospace firms could have served as a useful strategic signal to the United States that India was willing to put the relationship on a wholly new level.
Indian commentators and policymakers have been quick to assert that the US has been the beneficiary of other significant defence contracts. That argument, however, misses the point.
The symbolic significance of this potential contract was not lost on anyone. It was a deal of dramatic proportions and one that will have considerable ramifications for the future of India's defence procurement policies.
Against this backdrop of a series of disappointments Indian policymakers continue to express frustration with the United States on a range of issues extending from greater access to H1B visas to a lack of American pressure on Pakistan to rein in its continuing support for terror in Kashmir and elsewhere. These complaints, many of which are quite legitimate, are unlikely to gain a sympathetic hearing in Washington, D.C. anytime soon.
The obvious lack of reciprocity that India has demonstrated in the recent past has made it difficult even for those who are sympathetically inclined to make a case on its behalf. Obviously, those who have long harboured an animus towards the country have simply found more reasons to bolster their existing prejudices.
The domestic distractions that policymakers from both countries face at home are real and compelling. However, unless India's delegates to the next round of the strategic dialogue can proffer some imaginative and concrete suggestions for placing this partnership on a more secure footing the reasons for continuing the partnership may prove to be mostly chimerical.
SUMIT GANGULY is director of research at the Centre on American and Global Security at Indiana University, Bloomington
Gaddafi & nato
The Russian head of the World Chess Federation said on Tuesday after playing chess with Col. Muammar Gaddafi that the Libyan leader is open to talks with Nato and the country’s rebels.
Kirsan Ilyumzhinov said Gaddafi had told him that he was ready to immediately start peace talks once Nato stops air raids, but shrugged off international demands for him to leave. Russia has joined the West in urging the Libyan leader to step down, and Kremlin foreign affairs advisor Sergei Prikhodko said Ilyumzhinov had con
veyed Moscow’s official position during his meeting Sunday with Col. Gaddafi in Tripoli. Mr IIyumzhinov said at a news conference that Gaddafi replied he had no official job to resign from and that he has no intention of leaving the country. “I will not go anywhere, my relatives died here and I will also die in that land,” Ilyumzhinov quoted the Libyan leader as telling him during the meeting.
Mr Ilyumzhinov’s office released a tape in which he was playing chess with the Libyan leader, clad in black and brown and wearing sun
glasses. Allowing Col.
Gaddafi to play white, Mr Ilyumzhinov seemed to be showing him how to begin the game and then called it a draw. Mr Ilyumzhinov, who formerly headed Russia’s province of Kalmykia, is noted for eccentric behaviour including claims he was visited by a UFO. Col. Gaddafi had not been seen since a brief appearance on state TV in late May. He has been in hiding since Nato strikes struck one his homes. Officials said one of his sons, Saif al-Arab, and three of his grandchildren were killed in that strike.
—AP
Ottawa, June 14: Canada recognised Libya’s rebel council on Tuesday as the Libyans’ sole representative, adding its voice to several other nations, starting with France. “Canada will ... recognise the NTC (National Transitional Council) as the legitimate representative of the Libyan people going forward,” foreign affairs minister John Baird told the House of Commons.
—Reuters
China says won't use force in sea disputes
China on Tuesday June 14: China on Tuesday pledged not to resort to the use of force in the tense South China Sea, as neighbours with rival border claims stepped up their complaints over Beijing’s assertive maritime posture.
Beijing called for more dialogue to resolve the longstanding territorial disputes in the area after the Philippines sought help from the United States and Vietnam staged live-fire military exercises in a show of military strength.
“We will not resort to the use of force or the threat of force,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei told reporters. “We hope relevant countries will do more for peace and stability in the region.” Tensions between China and other rival claimants to the strategically vital South China Sea — home to two potentially oil-rich archipelagos, the Paracels and Spratlys — have escalated in recent weeks.
The Philippines and Vietnam in particular have expressed alarm at what they say are increasingly aggressive actions by China in the disputed waters, but Beijing has insisted it is committed to resolving the issue peacefully.
In Manila, Philippine President Benigno Aquino said on Tuesday his country needed help from longtime ally the United States in the increasingly tense maritime
dispute. “Of course they (China) are a superpower, they have more than 10 times our population. We do not want any hostilities to break out,“ Aquino told reporters when asked about recent Chinese actions in the disputed waters.
“Perhaps the presence of our treaty partners, the United States of America, ensures that all of us will have freedom of navigation (and) will conform to international law.“ --AFP